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Author : Steven F. Daly
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book A State-space Model for Ice Forecasting written by Steven F. Daly and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Steven Francis Daly
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (148 download)
Download or read book A State-space Model for River Ice Forecasting written by Steven Francis Daly and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (742 download)
Download or read book A State-Space Model for River Ice Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each winter ice forms on rivers streams, and navigable waterways, causing many problems through its effects on the operation of hydraulic control structures, locks and dams, hydropower plants, and water intakes. Ice covers increase river stages by presenting an additional rough boundary, which increases the channel wetted perimeter, reduces the channel hydraulic radius, and typically increases overall effective channel roughness. The increase in stage can result in flooding, especially during severe ice conditions or in low-lying areas. This situation is particularly critical downstream of hydroelectric power plants because the risk of ice-induced flooding may require operators of such plants to curtail power production and provide more expensive replacement power. This study presents a state space model for forecasting ice conditions and the resulting stages in rivers. The model incorporates a hydraulic component, a thermal and ice transport component, and an ice-cover progression component. The Kalman filter procedure is used to update the model with observed stages and observed positions of the upstream leading edge of the ice cover. The model thereby arrives at an efficient and optimal estimate of the river ice and hydraulic conditions. The state space model can also recursively estimate the effective channel roughness using the augmented Kalman filter procedure to account for changes in the channel roughness produced by the river ice cover and other effects. By way of an example the state space model is applied to the Missouri River downstream of Oahe Dam, located in Pierre, South Dakota, USA. Outflow from the dam, which is used for peaking power production, can vary between 0 and 55,000 cfs in a matter of minutes to meet the demands of the electric power grid it supplies. The system noise covariance of the model was adjusted to produce the optimal results based on least-squares criteria.
Author : Hannah M. Director
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 151 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book Space-time Contour Models for Sea Ice Forecasting written by Hannah M. Director and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation develops statistical methods for modeling contours. Particular emphasis is placed on forecasting the sea ice edge contour, or the boundary around ocean areas that are ice-covered. Current sea ice forecasts are largely based on dynamic ensembles. These physics-based prediction systems numerically solve differential equations to approximate possible evolutions of sea ice and its surrounding environment. While these dynamic ensemble forecasts provide information about future sea ice, they have systematic differences from observations and incorrect variability. I develop two methods to improve forecasts of the sea ice edge contour in the Arctic. I first introduce Contour-Shifting, a statistical method to anticipate and correct systematic errors in forecasts of the sea ice edge contour produced by dynamic ensembles. I then propose Mixture Contour Forecasting, a method to generate sea ice edge contours that have variability similar to observations. These generated contours can be used to predict the probability of sea ice presence weeks-to-months in advance. Both Contour-Shifting and Mixture Contour Forecasting represent the sea ice edge contour directly as a connected sequence of points. I extend this approach of modeling the points on contours directly with the development of the Gaussian Star-Shaped Contour Model. This model can be employed for inference and prediction of contours that enclose star-shaped polygons or approximately star-shaped polygons. Approaches for fitting this model and assessment metrics for contours are also introduced.
Author : Kevin Sene
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331923546X
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)
Download or read book Hydrometeorology written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-09 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).
Author : Geir Evensen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540383018
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)
Download or read book Data Assimilation written by Geir Evensen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-12-22 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews popular data-assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods, ensemble filters and smoothers. The author shows how different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Readers will appreciate the included introductory material and detailed derivations in the text, and a supplemental web site.
Author : Tom Carrieres
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108279546
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (82 download)
Download or read book Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting written by Tom Carrieres and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-05 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an advanced introduction to the science behind automated prediction systems, focusing on sea ice analysis and forecasting. Starting from basic principles, fundamental concepts in sea ice physics, remote sensing, numerical methods, and statistics are explained at an accessible level. Existing operational automated prediction systems are described and their impacts on information providers and end clients are discussed. The book also provides insight into the likely future development of sea ice services and how they will evolve from mainly manual processes to increasing automation, with a consequent increase in the diversity and information content of new ice products. With contributions from world-leading experts in the fields of sea ice remote sensing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and verification and operational prediction, this comprehensive reference is ideal for students, sea ice analysts, and researchers, as well as decision-makers and professionals working in the ice service industry.
Author : O.F. Vasiliev
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402057393
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security written by O.F. Vasiliev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-03-23 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the development of advanced methods for the prediction, the estimation of occurrence probabilities and the risk related to extreme hydrological events. It also discusses the reduction of the vulnerability of social, economic, and engineering systems to extreme hydrologic events and the decrease of their effects on such systems.
Author : Collective of authors
Publisher : Czech Institute of Academic Education z.s.
ISBN 13 : 8090579124
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (95 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of IAC-SSaH 2015 written by Collective of authors and published by Czech Institute of Academic Education z.s.. This book was released on 2015-04-16 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the Annual Eastern Snow Conference written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kevin Sene
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540778535
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-15 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent flood events in Europe, the USA and elsewhere have shown the devastating impact that flooding can have on people and property. Flood warning and forecasting systems provide a well-established way to help to reduce the effects of flooding by allowing people to be evacuated from areas at risk, and for measures to be taken to reduce damage to property. With sufficient warning, temporary defences (sandbags, flood gates etc) can also be installed, and river control structures operated to mitigate the effects of flooding. Many countries and local authorities now operate some form of flood warning system, and the underlying technology requires knowledge across a range of technical areas, including rainfall and tidal detection systems, river and coastal flood forecasting models, flood warning dissemination systems, and emergency response procedures. This book provides a comprehensive account of the flood forecasting, warning and emergency response process, including techniques for predicting the development of flood events, and for issuing appropriate warnings. Related topics, such as telemetry and information systems, and flood warning economics, are also discussed. For perhaps the first time, this book brings together in a single volume the many strands of this interesting multidisciplinary topic, and will serve as a reference for researchers, policy makers and engineers. The material on meteorological, hydrological and coastal modelling and monitoring may also be of interest to a wider audience.
Author : Gongbing Peng
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 366204868X
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Environmental Modelling and Prediction written by Gongbing Peng and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the authors consider the natural environment as an integrated system. The physical, chemical and biological processes that govern the behaviour of the environmental system can thus be understood through mathematical modelling, and their evolution can be studied by means of numerical simulation. The book contains a summary of various efficient approaches in atmospheric prediction, such as numerical weather prediction and statistical forecast of climate change, as well as other successful methods in land surface modelling. The authors explore new theories and methods in environment prediction such as systems analysis and information theory. Attention is given to new achievements in remote sensing tele-metering and geographic information systems.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author : Haraldur Olafsson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128157100
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations
Author : collective of authors
Publisher : Czech Institute of Academic Education z.s.
ISBN 13 : 8090579116
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (95 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of IAC-EIaT 2014 written by collective of authors and published by Czech Institute of Academic Education z.s.. This book was released on 2014-12-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conference proceedings - International Academic Conference on Engineering, Internet and Technology in Prague 2014 (IAC-EIaT 2014 in Prague), Friday - Saturday, December 12 - 13, 2014
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 692 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ubaidillah Sabino
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811544816
Total Pages : 813 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the 6th International Conference and Exhibition on Sustainable Energy and Advanced Materials written by Ubaidillah Sabino and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-01 with total page 813 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gathers the proceedings of the 6th International Conference and Exhibition on Sustainable Energy and Advanced Materials (ICE-SEAM 2019), held on 16–17 October 2019 in Surakarta, Indonesia. It focuses on two relatively broad areas – advanced materials and sustainable energy – and a diverse range of subtopics: Advanced Materials and Related Technologies: Liquid Crystals, Semiconductors, Superconductors, Optics, Lasers, Sensors, Mesoporous Materials, Nanomaterials, Smart Ferrous Materials, Amorphous Materials, Crystalline Materials, Biomaterials, Metamaterials, Composites, Polymers, Design, Analysis, Development, Manufacturing, Processing and Testing for Advanced Materials. Sustainable Energy and Related Technologies: Energy Management, Storage, Conservation, Industrial Energy Efficiency, Energy-Efficient Buildings, Energy-Efficient Traffic Systems, Energy Distribution, Energy Modeling, Hybrid and Integrated Energy Systems, Fossil Energy, Nuclear Energy, Bioenergy, Biogas, Biomass Geothermal Power, Non-Fossil Energies, Wind Energy, Hydropower, Solar Photovoltaic, Fuel Cells, Electrification, and Electrical Power Systems and Controls.
