A New Approach To Markov Switching Garch Models

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Advances in Markov-Switching Models

Author : James D. Hamilton
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642511821
Total Pages : 267 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Markov-Switching Models by : James D. Hamilton

Download or read book Advances in Markov-Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.

Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models

Author : David Ardia
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540786570
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models by : David Ardia

Download or read book Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models written by David Ardia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-08 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.

Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis

Author : Steven Durlauf
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230280838
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis by : Steven Durlauf

Download or read book Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.

GARCH Models

Author : Christian Francq
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119957397
Total Pages : 469 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis GARCH Models by : Christian Francq

Download or read book GARCH Models written by Christian Francq and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-24 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding GARCH time series models and their applications whilst presenting the most advanced results concerning the theory and practical aspects of GARCH. The probability structure of standard GARCH models is studied in detail as well as statistical inference such as identification, estimation and tests. The book also provides coverage of several extensions such as asymmetric and multivariate models and looks at financial applications. Key features: Provides up-to-date coverage of the current research in the probability, statistics and econometric theory of GARCH models. Numerous illustrations and applications to real financial series are provided. Supporting website featuring R codes, Fortran programs and data sets. Presents a large collection of problems and exercises. This authoritative, state-of-the-art reference is ideal for graduate students, researchers and practitioners in business and finance seeking to broaden their skills of understanding of econometric time series models.

State-space Models with Regime Switching

Author : Chang-Jin Kim
Publisher : Mit Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262112383
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (123 download)

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Book Synopsis State-space Models with Regime Switching by : Chang-Jin Kim

Download or read book State-space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

Multifractal Volatility

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Author : Laurent E. Calvet
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0080559964
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Multifractal Volatility by : Laurent E. Calvet

Download or read book Multifractal Volatility written by Laurent E. Calvet and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-10-13 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. - Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility - Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities - The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research

GARCH Models

Author : Christian Francq
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119313570
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis GARCH Models by : Christian Francq

Download or read book GARCH Models written by Christian Francq and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a comprehensive and updated study of GARCH models and their applications in finance, covering new developments in the discipline This book provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding GARCH time series models and their applications whilst presenting the most advanced results concerning the theory and practical aspects of GARCH. The probability structure of standard GARCH models is studied in detail as well as statistical inference such as identification, estimation, and tests. The book also provides new coverage of several extensions such as multivariate models, looks at financial applications, and explores the very validation of the models used. GARCH Models: Structure, Statistical Inference and Financial Applications, 2nd Edition features a new chapter on Parameter-Driven Volatility Models, which covers Stochastic Volatility Models and Markov Switching Volatility Models. A second new chapter titled Alternative Models for the Conditional Variance contains a section on Stochastic Recurrence Equations and additional material on EGARCH, Log-GARCH, GAS, MIDAS, and intraday volatility models, among others. The book is also updated with a more complete discussion of multivariate GARCH; a new section on Cholesky GARCH; a larger emphasis on the inference of multivariate GARCH models; a new set of corrected problems available online; and an up-to-date list of references. Features up-to-date coverage of the current research in the probability, statistics, and econometric theory of GARCH models Covers significant developments in the field, especially in multivariate models Contains completely renewed chapters with new topics and results Handles both theoretical and applied aspects Applies to researchers in different fields (time series, econometrics, finance) Includes numerous illustrations and applications to real financial series Presents a large collection of exercises with corrections Supplemented by a supporting website featuring R codes, Fortran programs, data sets and Problems with corrections GARCH Models, 2nd Edition is an authoritative, state-of-the-art reference that is ideal for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in business and finance seeking to broaden their skills of understanding of econometric time series models.

Inference in Hidden Markov Models

Author : Olivier Cappé
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387289828
Total Pages : 656 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Inference in Hidden Markov Models by : Olivier Cappé

Download or read book Inference in Hidden Markov Models written by Olivier Cappé and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-12 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a comprehensive treatment of inference for hidden Markov models, including both algorithms and statistical theory. Topics range from filtering and smoothing of the hidden Markov chain to parameter estimation, Bayesian methods and estimation of the number of states. In a unified way the book covers both models with finite state spaces and models with continuous state spaces (also called state-space models) requiring approximate simulation-based algorithms that are also described in detail. Many examples illustrate the algorithms and theory. This book builds on recent developments to present a self-contained view.

Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions

Author : Hans-Martin Krolzig
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 364251684X
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions by : Hans-Martin Krolzig

Download or read book Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

Author : Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030042006
Total Pages : 1167 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics by : Vladik Kreinovich

Download or read book Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-24 with total page 1167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.

Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics

Author : Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030541088
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics by : Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics written by Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-17 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series

Author : Walter Zucchini
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482253844
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models for Time Series by : Walter Zucchini

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data

Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling

Author : Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030042634
Total Pages : 784 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling by : Vladik Kreinovich

Download or read book Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-24 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on structural changes and economic modeling. It presents papers describing how to model structural changes, as well as those introducing improvements to the existing before-structural-changes models, making it easier to later on combine these models with techniques describing structural changes. The book also includes related theoretical developments and practical applications of the resulting techniques to economic problems. Most traditional mathematical models of economic processes describe how the corresponding quantities change with time. However, in addition to such relatively smooth numerical changes, economical phenomena often undergo more drastic structural change. Describing such structural changes is not easy, but it is vital if we want to have a more adequate description of economic phenomena – and thus, more accurate and more reliable predictions and a better understanding on how best to influence the economic situation.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Author : Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331949046X
Total Pages : 740 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by : Van-Nam Huynh

Download or read book Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 740 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2016, held in Da Nang, Vietnam, in November/December 2016. The IUKM symposia aim to provide a forum for exchanges of research results and ideas, and experience of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.

New Econometric Modelling Research

Author : William N. Toggins
Publisher : Nova Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781600215865
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (158 download)

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Book Synopsis New Econometric Modelling Research by : William N. Toggins

Download or read book New Econometric Modelling Research written by William N. Toggins and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are used by economists to find standard relationships among aspects of the macroeconomy and use those relationships to predict the effects of certain events (like government policies) on inflation, unemployment, growth, etc... Econometric models generally have a short-run aggregate supply component with fixed prices, and aggregate demand portion, and a potential output component. Two famous econometric models are the Federal Reserve Bank econometric model and the DRI-WEFA model. This book presents new and important research in this field.

Handbook of High Frequency Trading

Author : Greg N. Gregoriou
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128023627
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of High Frequency Trading by : Greg N. Gregoriou

Download or read book Handbook of High Frequency Trading written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-02-05 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive examination of high frequency trading looks beyond mathematical models, which are the subject of most HFT books, to the mechanics of the marketplace. In 25 chapters, researchers probe the intricate nature of high frequency market dynamics, market structure, back-office processes, and regulation. They look deeply into computing infrastructure, describing data sources, formats, and required processing rates as well as software architecture and current technologies. They also create contexts, explaining the historical rise of automated trading systems, corresponding technological advances in hardware and software, and the evolution of the trading landscape. Developed for students and professionals who want more than discussions on the econometrics of the modelling process, The Handbook of High Frequency Trading explains the entirety of this controversial trading strategy. - Answers all questions about high frequency trading without being limited to mathematical modelling - Illuminates market dynamics, processes, and regulations - Explains how high frequency trading evolved and predicts its future developments

Handbook of Financial Time Series

Author : Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540712976
Total Pages : 1045 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Time Series by : Torben Gustav Andersen

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Time Series written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 1045 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.