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A Model To Assess The Probabilities Of Growth Fiscal And Financial Crises
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Book Synopsis A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises by : Mr.Suman S Basu
Download or read book A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises written by Mr.Suman S Basu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis This Time Is Different by : Carmen M. Reinhart
Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344658 Total Pages :257 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Crises by : Mrs.Kerstin Gerling
Download or read book Fiscal Crises written by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Inequality, Leverage and Crises by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.
Book Synopsis How to Assess Country Risk by : International Monetary
Download or read book How to Assess Country Risk written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Book Synopsis Bridging Microeconomics and Macroeconomics and the Effects on Economic Development and Growth by : Kostis, Pantelis C.
Download or read book Bridging Microeconomics and Macroeconomics and the Effects on Economic Development and Growth written by Kostis, Pantelis C. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-10-30 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the mainstream microeconomic and macroeconomic analysis was proven to be insufficient for exploring the dynamic and complex interactions among humans, institutions, and nature in our real economy. On the one side, microeconomics is filled with black-box models that fail to study the actual contractual relations between firms and markets, while on the other side macroeconomics were proven useless because they mistook the beauty of theoretical models for truth. Thus, questions have arisen about using new theoretical and empirical structures that would better describe our economic systems. Bridging Microeconomics and Macroeconomics and the Effects on Economic Development and Growth is an essential reference source that analyzes the hypotheses that govern the relationships of aggregate structures (macroeconomic analysis) that may be compatible with the assumptions that govern the behavior of individuals, households, and firms (micro analysis), and vice versa, in trying to achieve sustainable economic development and growth. Moreover, modern evolutionary growth thinking is used in trying to bridge the inconsistencies between microeconomics and macroeconomics and confront their failures in order to better describe the economic reality. While highlighting a broad range of topics including globalization, economic systems, and the role of institutions, this book is aimed toward economic analysts, financial advisors, policymakers, researchers, academicians, and students.
Book Synopsis From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-22 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Author :New York University Stern School of Business Publisher :John Wiley & Sons ISBN 13 :0470949864 Total Pages :592 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (79 download)
Book Synopsis Regulating Wall Street by : New York University Stern School of Business
Download or read book Regulating Wall Street written by New York University Stern School of Business and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-28 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts from NYU Stern School of Business analyze new financial regulations and what they mean for the economy The NYU Stern School of Business is one of the top business schools in the world thanks to the leading academics, researchers, and provocative thinkers who call it home. In Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance, an impressive group of the Stern school’s top authorities on finance combine their expertise in capital markets, risk management, banking, and derivatives to assess the strengths and weaknesses of new regulations in response to the recent global financial crisis. Summarizes key issues that regulatory reform should address Evaluates the key components of regulatory reform Provides analysis of how the reforms will affect financial firms and markets, as well as the real economy The U.S. Congress is on track to complete the most significant changes in financial regulation since the 1930s. Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance discusses the impact these news laws will have on the U.S. and global financial architecture.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk by : Tobias Adrian
Download or read book The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk written by Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-02 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.
Book Synopsis Assessing Country Risk by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Download or read book Assessing Country Risk written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
