A Deuterium Calibrated Discrete State Compartment Model Of Regional Groundwater Flow In The Diamond Valley Area Central Nevada

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Download or read book Regional Groundwater Flow and Tritium Transport Modeling and Risk Assessment of the Underground Test Area, Nevada Test Site, Nevada written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The groundwater flow system of the Nevada Test Site and surrounding region was evaluated to estimate the highest potential current and near-term risk to the public and the environment from groundwater contamination downgradient of the underground nuclear testing areas. The highest, or greatest, potential risk is estimated by assuming that several unusually rapid transport pathways as well as public and environmental exposures all occur simultaneously. These conservative assumptions may cause risks to be significantly overestimated. However, such a deliberate, conservative approach ensures that public health and environmental risks are not underestimated and allows prioritization of future work to minimize potential risks. Historical underground nuclear testing activities, particularly detonations near or below the water table, have contaminated groundwater near testing locations with radioactive and nonradioactive constituents. Tritium was selected as the contaminant of primary concern for this phase of the project because it is abundant, highly mobile, and represents the most significant contributor to the potential radiation dose to humans for the short term. It was also assumed that the predicted risk to human health and the environment from tritium exposure would reasonably represent the risk from other, less mobile radionuclides within the same time frame. Other contaminants will be investigated at a later date. Existing and newly collected hydrogeologic data were compiled for a large area of southern Nevada and California, encompassing the Nevada Test Site regional groundwater flow system. These data were used to develop numerical groundwater flow and tritium transport models for use in the prediction of tritium concentrations at hypothetical human and ecological receptor locations for a 200-year time frame. A numerical, steady-state regional groundwater flow model was developed to serve as the basis for the prediction of the movement of tritium from the underground testing areas on a regional scale. The groundwater flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking code to define the pathlines followed by groundwater particles originating from 415 points associated with 253 nuclear test locations. Three of the most rapid pathlines were selected for transport simulations. These pathlines are associated with three nuclear test locations, each representing one of the three largest testing areas. These testing locations are: BOURBON on Yucca Flat, HOUSTON on Central Pahute Mesa, and TYBO on Western Pahute Mesa. One-dimensional stochastic tritium transport simulations were performed for the three pathlines using the Monte Carlo method with Latin hypercube sampling. For the BOURBON and TYBO pathlines, sources of tritium from other tests located along the same pathline were included in the simulations. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the transport model to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the geologic model, the rates of groundwater flow, the tritium source, and the transport parameters. Tritium concentration predictions were found to be mostly sensitive to the regional geology in controlling the horizontal and vertical position of transport pathways. The simulated concentrations are also sensitive to matrix diffusion, an important mechanism governing the migration of tritium in fractured carbonate and volcanic rocks. Source term concentration uncertainty is most important near the test locations and decreases in importance as the travel distance increases. The uncertainty on groundwater flow rates is as important as that on matrix diffusion at downgradient locations. The risk assessment was performed to provide conservative and bounding estimates of the potential risks to human health and the environment from tritium in groundwater. Risk models were designed by coupling scenario-specific tritium intake with tritium dose models and cancer and genetic risk estimates using the Monte Carlo method. Estimated radiation doses received by individuals from chronic exposure to tritium, and the corresponding human health risks at hypothetical point-of-use locations along each of the pathlines were calculated for six potential land-use scenarios. Conservative land-use scenarios were postulated to ensure that the calculated exposures would bound any realistic dose received by individuals. Based on the human-health risk estimates, tritium exposures associated with the HOUSTON and BOURBON pathlines do not present a human health hazard off the Nevada Test Site in the present, the near term, or in the future. However, the estimates show that the TYBO pathline has the greatest potential for off-site release with a projected groundwater discharge at Oasis Valley. Using the most conservative scenario for tritium exposure demonstrates that dose could exceed the 100-mrem/yr limit at locations along the TYBO pathline.