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A Comparison Of Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainties In The Modeling Of Complex Systems
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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach by : Bilal Ayyub
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach written by Bilal Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-10-31 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Rotor Dynamics – IFToMM by : Katia Lucchesi Cavalca
Download or read book Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Rotor Dynamics – IFToMM written by Katia Lucchesi Cavalca and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-20 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IFToMM conferences have a history of success due to the various advances achieved in the field of rotor dynamics over the past three decades. These meetings have since become a leading global event, bringing together specialists from industry and academia to promote the exchange of knowledge, ideas, and information on the latest developments in the dynamics of rotating machinery. The scope of the conference is broad, including e.g. active components and vibration control, balancing, bearings, condition monitoring, dynamic analysis and stability, wind turbines and generators, electromechanical interactions in rotor dynamics and turbochargers. The proceedings are divided into four volumes. This fourth volume covers the following main topics: aero-engines; turbochargers; eolian (wind) generators; automotive rotating systems; and hydro power plants.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems by : Yacov Y. Haimes
Download or read book Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-09-04 with total page 950 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the theory, methodology, and development for modeling systems of systems Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems examines the complexity of, and the risk to, emergent interconnected and interdependent complex systems of systems in the natural and the constructed environment, and in its critical infrastructures. For systems modelers, this book focuses on what constitutes complexity and how to understand, model and manage it.Previous modeling methods for complex systems of systems were aimed at developing theory and methodologies for uncoupling the interdependencies and interconnections that characterize them. In this book, the author extends the above by utilizing public- and private- sector case studies; identifies, explores, and exploits the core of interdependencies; and seeks to understand their essence via the states of the system, and their dominant contributions to the complexity of systems of systems. The book proposes a reevaluation of fundamental and practical systems engineering and risk analysis concepts on complex systems of systems developed over the past 40 years. This important resource: Updates and streamlines systems engineering theory, methodology, and practice as applied to complex systems of systems Introduces modeling methodology inspired by philosophical and conceptual thinking from the arts and sciences Models the complexity of emergent interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems by analyzing their shared states, decisions, resources, and decisionmakers Written for systems engineers, industrial engineers, managers, planners, academics and other professionals in engineering systems and the environment,this text is the resource for understanding the fundamental principles of modeling and managing complex systems of systems, and the risk thereto.
Book Synopsis Principles of Environmental Sciences by : Jan J. Boersema
Download or read book Principles of Environmental Sciences written by Jan J. Boersema and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-12 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International experts provide a comprehensive picture of the principles, concepts and methods that are applicable to problems originating from the interaction between the living/non-living environment and mankind. Both the analysis of such problems and the way solutions to environmental problems may work in specific societal contexts are addressed. Disciplinary approaches are discussed but there is a focus on multi- and interdisciplinary methods. A large number of practical examples and case studies are presented. There is special emphasis on modelling and integrated assessment. This book is different because it stresses the societal, cultural and historical dimensions of environmental problems. The main objective is to improve the ability to analyse and conceptualise environmental problems in context and to make readers aware of the value and scope of different methods. Ideal as a course text for students, this book will also be of interest to researchers and consultants in the environmental sciences.
Book Synopsis The Hartwell Approach to Climate Policy by : Steve Rayner
Download or read book The Hartwell Approach to Climate Policy written by Steve Rayner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-09-19 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Hartwell Approach to Climate Policy presents a powerful critique of mainstream climate change policies and details a set of pragmatic alternatives based on the Hartwell Group’s collective writings from 1988-2010. Drawing on a rich history of heterodox but increasingly accepted views on climate change policy, this book brings together in a single volume a series of key, related texts that define the ‘Hartwell critique’ of conventional climate change policies and the ‘Hartwell approach’ to building more inclusive, pragmatic alternatives. This book tells of the story of how and why conventional climate policy has failed and, drawing from lessons learned, how it can be renovated. It does so by weaving together three strands of analysis. First, it highlights why the mainstream approach, as embodied by the Kyoto Protocol, has failed to produce real world reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and delayed real meaningful progress on climate change. Second, it explores the underlying political, economic, and technological factors which form the boundary conditions for climate change policy but which are often ignored by policy makers and advocates. Finally, it lays out a novel approach to climate change guided centrally by the goal of uplifting human dignity worldwide—and the recognition that this can only succeed if pursued pragmatically, economically, and with democratic legitimacy. With contributions from leading scholars in the field, this work presents a original critique of climate policy and a constructive primer for how to improve it.
Book Synopsis Contemporary Complex Systems and Their Dependability by : Wojciech Zamojski
Download or read book Contemporary Complex Systems and Their Dependability written by Wojciech Zamojski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-26 with total page 581 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the proceedings of the Thirteenth International Conference on Dependability and Complex Systems (DepCoS-RELCOMEX), which took place in the Brunów Palace in Poland from 2nd to 6th July 2018. The conference has been organized at the Faculty of Electronics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology since 2006, and it continues the tradition of two other events: RELCOMEX (1977–89) and Microcomputer School (1985–95). The selection of papers in these proceedings illustrates the broad variety of topics that are investigated in dependability analyses of today’s complex systems. Dependability came naturally as a contemporary answer to new challenges in the reliability evaluation of these systems. Such systems cannot be considered only as structures (however complex and distributed) built on the basis of technical resources (hardware): their analysis must take into account a unique blend of interacting people (their needs and behaviours), networks (together with mobile properties, cloud-based systems) and a large number of users dispersed geographically and producing an unimaginable number of applications (working online). A growing number of research methods apply the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and computational intelligence (CI). Today’s complex systems are really complex and are applied in numerous different fields of contemporary life.
Book Synopsis Ocean Forecasting by : Nadia Pinardi
Download or read book Ocean Forecasting written by Nadia Pinardi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Advanced Study Courses in the field of Marine Science and Technology were part of the training programme developed from 1989 until 1999 within MAST, the Marine Science and Technology Programme of the European Union. They were related to the core topics of MAST Programme, marine systems research, extreme marine environments, regional Sea research, coastal systems research and engineering, and marine technology. The main objectives of these study courses were to further advance education in topics at the forefront of scien tific and technological development in Europe, and to improve the communication between students and experienced scientists on a European and international level. Over the years the Programme sponsored around 30 Advanced Study Courses. They took place in ten different member states of the European Union and their contribution in the formation of a European scientific community was significant. They also encouraged exchanges and contacts with several countries around the world such as United States, the third Mediterranean countries and others. The Course on Ocean Forecasting was one ofthe most successful with regard to its con tent, number of applications for participation and students satisfaction. When considering the need for the Advanced Study Course on Ocean Forecast ing, it is important to remember that the Oceans and Seas have always played a central role throughout the history of mankind. This is seen from the times of the ancient civilizations ofEgypt and Greece with the Phoenician traders, to the Viking voyages of exploration and discovery in medieval times.
Book Synopsis Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Water Resources Modeling by : Philippe Renard
Download or read book Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Water Resources Modeling written by Philippe Renard and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.
Book Synopsis Urban Energy Systems for Low-Carbon Cities by : Ursula Eicker
Download or read book Urban Energy Systems for Low-Carbon Cities written by Ursula Eicker and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With an increase of global energy demand arising in urban settlements, the key challenges for the urban energy transition include analysis of energy efficiency options and the potential of renewable energy systems within the existing building stock, making cities a key actor in the transition success. In Urban Energy Systems for Low Carbon Cities, indicators to evaluate urban energy performance are introduced and the status quo of monitoring and efficiency valuation schemes are discussed. The book discusses advances on the state-of-the-art of research in a number of key areas: - Energy demand and consumption mapping and monitoring - Optimization of design and operation of urban supply and distribution systems - Integration of renewable energy and urban energy network models - Demand side management strategies to better match renewable supply and demand and increase flexibilities With innovative modelling methods this book gives a real bottom-up modelling approach used for the simulation of energy consumption, energy conversion systems and distribution networks using engineering methods. - Provides support and guidance on the energy transition issues relating to energy demand, consumption mapping and monitoring - Includes examples from case study cities, including Vienna, Geneva, New York and Stuttgart - Analyzes the potential of energy management strategies in urban areas
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the UNIfied Conference of DAMAS, IncoME and TEPEN Conferences (UNIfied 2023) by : Andrew D. Ball
Download or read book Proceedings of the UNIfied Conference of DAMAS, IncoME and TEPEN Conferences (UNIfied 2023) written by Andrew D. Ball and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 1186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Streamflow Measurement by : Reginald W. Herschy
Download or read book Streamflow Measurement written by Reginald W. Herschy and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-06-30 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Too little water or too much'? In either case streamflow measurement is crucial. Climate change could significant affect water resources and flood management. Streamflow measurement is necessary for efficient water management.This third edition deals with all the main current methods for measuring the flow in rivers and open channels, in accordanc
Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Book Synopsis Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering by : Peter F. Pelz
Download or read book Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering written by Peter F. Pelz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book reports on innovative methods, technologies and strategies for mastering uncertainty in technical systems. Despite the fact that current research on uncertainty is mainly focusing on uncertainty quantification and analysis, this book gives emphasis to innovative ways to master uncertainty in engineering design, production and product usage alike. It gathers authoritative contributions by more than 30 scientists reporting on years of research in the areas of engineering, applied mathematics and law, thus offering a timely, comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of theories and methods for quantifying data, model and structural uncertainty, and of fundamental strategies for mastering uncertainty. It covers key concepts such as robustness, flexibility and resilience in detail. All the described methods, technologies and strategies have been validated with the help of three technical systems, i.e. the Modular Active Spring-Damper System, the Active Air Spring and the 3D Servo Press, which have been in turn developed and tested during more than ten years of cooperative research. Overall, this book offers a timely, practice-oriented reference guide to graduate students, researchers and professionals dealing with uncertainty in the broad field of mechanical engineering.
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling by : Keith Beven
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Book Synopsis AIAA Journal by : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Download or read book AIAA Journal written by American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 1380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Lawrence Livermore National and Sandia National Laboratories, Continued Operation by :
Download or read book Lawrence Livermore National and Sandia National Laboratories, Continued Operation written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Reliability and Risk Analysis by : Mohammad Modarres
Download or read book Reliability and Risk Analysis written by Mohammad Modarres and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-04-26 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emphasises an introduction and explanation of the practical methods used in reliability, and risk studies with a discussion of their uses and limitations Offers basic and advanced methods in reliability analysis that are commonly used in daily practice Provides methods that address unique topics such as dependent failure analysis, importance analysis, and analysis of repairable systems Presents a comprehensive overview of modern probabilistic life assessment methods such as Bayesian estimation, system reliability analysis, and human reliability Includes many ends of chapter problems, a tools website with computational codes, along with a solutions manual to support course adoptions
