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2012 Spillover Report Background Papers
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Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498340245 Total Pages :147 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis 2012 Spillover Report - Background Papers by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book 2012 Spillover Report - Background Papers written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-07 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note conducts a business cycle accounting analysis for systemic economies, with an emphasis on spillover effects from macroeconomic versus financial shocks. The systemic economies under consideration are China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This analysis is based on historical decompositions of output growth derived from the estimated structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies, documented in Vitek (2012). Within this framework, each economy is represented by interconnected real, external, monetary, fiscal, and financial sectors. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498341543 Total Pages :171 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis 2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book 2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: What do we mean by policy uncertainty? How well can we measure it? How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades? And how large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions? The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees. It also suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.
Book Synopsis 2013 Spillover Report by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book 2013 Spillover Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-02 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Five years after the global financial crisis, the severe tensions and risks rooted last year in some of the “Systemic five” (S5)—China, euro area, Japan, United Kingdom, United States––have abated but all five are still operating below potential, i.e., they are not contributing to global activity as much as they might: if they could somehow close their output gaps, global output would be closer to potential by 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, many parts of the rest of the world have been at or near potential. Most recently though, there have been signs of accelerated recovery in the United States and slowdown in emerging markets. This continued divergence in cyclical positions poses a global challenge, namely to find policies that help the S5 close their output gap without over-stimulating or over-tightening, through spillovers, economies that do not need it.
Book Synopsis Spillovers from China by : MissNkunde Mwase
Download or read book Spillovers from China written by MissNkunde Mwase and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although China’s much-needed transition to a new growth path is proceeding broadly as expected, the transition is still fraught with uncertainty, including regarding the Chinese authorities’ ability to achieve a smooth rebalancing of growth and the extent of the attendant slowdown in activity. Thus, in the short run, the transition process is likely to entail significant spillovers through trade and commodities, and possibly financial channels. This note sheds some light on the size and nature of financial spillovers from China by looking at the impact of developments in China on global financial markets, with a particular emphasis on differentiation across asset classes and markets. The note shows that economic and financial developments in China have a significant impact on global financial markets, but these effects reflect primarily the central role the country plays in goods trade and commodity markets, rather than China’s financial integration in global markets and the direct financial linkages it has with other countries.
Book Synopsis The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Download or read book The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.
Book Synopsis The Future of Asian Finance by : Ms.Ratna Sahay
Download or read book The Future of Asian Finance written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-18 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia’s financial systems proved resilient to the shocks from the global financial crisis, and growth since then has been strong. But new challenges have emerged in the region’s economies, including demographics and aging, the need to diversify from bank-dominated systems, urbanization and infrastructure, and the rebalancing of economic activity. This book takes stock of the challenges facing the region today and how economic systems in Asia’s advanced and emerging market economies compare with the rest of the world.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475525575 Total Pages :25 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Malaysia by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Malaysia written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-15 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Note focuses on banking system spillovers of Malaysia. The note examines the presence of foreign banks and the potential for problems in other jurisdictions to spillover to Malaysia and the overseas operations of Malaysian banks, which make their performance and solvency more exposed to economic and political developments abroad. A key facet of the current crisis is serious problems in advanced economy banks, suggesting a role for spillovers from their claims on Malaysia. Notwithstanding the Asian Financial Crisis, foreign claims of BIS-reporting banks on Malaysia have generally been on an increasing trend since the early 1990s.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475506465 Total Pages :107 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis United Kingdom by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-19 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2012 Article IV Consultation reports that the United Kingdom's economic recovery has been sluggish, as the needed hand-off from public to private demand-led growth has not fully materialized. Economic activity is projected to gain modest momentum in future, but the pace of expansion is expected to be weak relative to the scale of underutilized resources. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ efforts aimed at economic rebalancing. However, they have cautioned that a stalling recovery, high unemployment, and uncertain external conditions continue to present significant challenges.
Book Synopsis World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2013 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2013 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-10-25 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is a comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific region of the World Bank.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 1 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2014-06-20 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. A special chapter covers growth prospects and fiscal requirments over the long term.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 by : World Bank Publications
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 written by World Bank Publications and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in highincome countries, low oil prices, and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. However, continued weak global trade growth and gradually tightening financial conditions will constrain the recovery. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes four essays that analyze key challenges and opportunities currently confronting developing countries: fiscal policy as a countercyclical policy tool; causes and implications of cheap oil; weak trade that fails to act as an engine of growth; and remittances as a means of steadying consumption during sudden stops. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
Book Synopsis China's Economy in Transition by : Mr.Anoop Singh
Download or read book China's Economy in Transition written by Mr.Anoop Singh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-07 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Book Synopsis 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Integrating Bilateral and Multilateral Surveillance on a Continuing Basis by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Integrating Bilateral and Multilateral Surveillance on a Continuing Basis written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-30 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475576293 Total Pages :79 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis France by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book France written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-08 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper identifies France’s structural reforms that would yield the largest competitiveness gains based on macro-empirical evidence, and reviews signs of potential gains from a deregulation of the services sector. It is expected that completing deregulation in the services sector would benefit the entire French economy, by boosting productivity and exports. Econometric results have estimated the impact of reducing the labor taxation and labor market rigidities and of increasing innovation to the average level of other advanced countries.
Book Synopsis Ireland by : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-29 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an Ex Post Evaluation of the 2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with Ireland. The Fund approved in December 2010 an exceptional access EFF arrangement for SDR 19.466 billion (2,321.8 percent of quota) in support of Ireland’s home-grown program and as part of a broader financing package of Ireland and its European partners. The program focused on addressing the Irish banking crisis to break the adverse feedback loop between banks, the sovereign, and the real sector. It aimed to restore the banking system to health, including by establishing a smaller banking sector with high capital buffers and more stable funding sources; and to secure fiscal sustainability while limiting the near-term demand drag from fiscal consolidation. Large external financing was a key element of the crisis response. Program implementation was very strong. The program succeeded in stabilizing the banking sector and reducing its size, and fiscal developments were also broadly as anticipated. Domestic demand was, however, weaker than programmed and unemployment remained high, amid a very challenging external environment. Program success, including regaining market access at low interest rates, benefitted also from actions at the wider euro area level. The Ex Post Evaluation draws several lessons from Ireland’s experience under the EFF: ? The main lessons emerge from what worked well: Strong country ownership, setting (and meeting) realistic and tailored targets were key for success, combined with effective communication and pro-active engagement. Addressing a banking crisis requires strong and credible actions upfront. ? Some areas offer lessons for future program design: While the main pillars of the financial sector program were sound, more proactive and stronger supervisory interventions and other supportive steps could have strengthened banks’ balance sheets and bank profitability and helped resolve problem loans; bank recapitalization should be limited to those with viable medium-term business strategies; unsecured and non-guaranteed creditors of failed banks should be bailed in, provided a strategy to ring fence potential systemic risks can be put in place; macro-financial linkages require careful attention and timely steps to limit sovereignbanking sector feedback loops; fiscal policy has to be mindful of debt sustainability but also of domestic demand conditions, and it needs a clear anchor. ? There are also lessons related to Fund policies: Ireland’s EFF underscores the importance of addressing shortcomings of the systemic exemption clause in Criterion 2 of the exceptional access criteria; and it suggests the need to explore ways to secure stronger upfront commitments from monetary union authorities, when those are critical for program success.
Book Synopsis 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers by : International Monetary
Download or read book 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.
